The Automobile 1914-1920
If you own oil stocks then you should read, 'The Prize' by Daniel Yergin. It is an excellent book about the history of oil. The timeline starts in 1853. Here is just one tidbit. I think it relates to today's situation with China and India:
On page 194 of "The Prize" it states that the, "...number of registered motor vehicles in the United states between 1914 and 1920 was astonishing - a jump from 1.8 to 9.2 million."
On page 218 Daniel Yergin points out that crude oil, "...which had been $1.20 a barrel in 1916, rose to $3.36 by 1920..."
I'm going to go out on a limb and link the automobile as one of the main reasons causing shortages of gasoline and crude oil. I see the same exact thing happening 86 years later with China. The USA is outsourcing many positions that were once done here in the USA. Call Dell computer or Citibank and you might talk to someone in India.
The younger generation in these countries now have wealth that their parents probably didn't have. They want to live like we do here....with a car, a microwave, and lots of things that require plastic (need petroleum to make plastic right?!) Anyway we know that China has recently purchased a large number of commercial aircraft from Boeing and Airbus. Their population now is having money to travel! China is now going to produce cars and sell them in the USA in the not to distant future. They'll also be making cars for their own people. I feel there will be an explosion in automobile purchases in China much like the USA had back between the years 1914 and 1920. This will no doubt put pressure on worldwide crude supplies.
But the problem is that today all the major oil discoveries have already been made unlike 1920. Also, the major oil fields of the world are in decline. So now we have to find new fields and increase production in existing fields just to make up for declines in those major oil fields that have been in production for decades. Most notable is the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia: the world's largest oil field.
Anyway...lots of historical tidbits that seems to be repeating again. The book is also a lesson in history. I would highly recommend that anyone read the book if you enjoy reading and are driven to learn about the history of oil.
So...to put things in perspective: ARD is a company worth holding.
The world is going to need a lot more crude oil and gasoline in the future...
Works Cited list:
Yergin, Daniel. The Prize: the Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1991.
If you own oil stocks then you should read, 'The Prize' by Daniel Yergin. It is an excellent book about the history of oil. The timeline starts in 1853. Here is just one tidbit. I think it relates to today's situation with China and India:
On page 194 of "The Prize" it states that the, "...number of registered motor vehicles in the United states between 1914 and 1920 was astonishing - a jump from 1.8 to 9.2 million."
On page 218 Daniel Yergin points out that crude oil, "...which had been $1.20 a barrel in 1916, rose to $3.36 by 1920..."
I'm going to go out on a limb and link the automobile as one of the main reasons causing shortages of gasoline and crude oil. I see the same exact thing happening 86 years later with China. The USA is outsourcing many positions that were once done here in the USA. Call Dell computer or Citibank and you might talk to someone in India.
The younger generation in these countries now have wealth that their parents probably didn't have. They want to live like we do here....with a car, a microwave, and lots of things that require plastic (need petroleum to make plastic right?!) Anyway we know that China has recently purchased a large number of commercial aircraft from Boeing and Airbus. Their population now is having money to travel! China is now going to produce cars and sell them in the USA in the not to distant future. They'll also be making cars for their own people. I feel there will be an explosion in automobile purchases in China much like the USA had back between the years 1914 and 1920. This will no doubt put pressure on worldwide crude supplies.
But the problem is that today all the major oil discoveries have already been made unlike 1920. Also, the major oil fields of the world are in decline. So now we have to find new fields and increase production in existing fields just to make up for declines in those major oil fields that have been in production for decades. Most notable is the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia: the world's largest oil field.
Anyway...lots of historical tidbits that seems to be repeating again. The book is also a lesson in history. I would highly recommend that anyone read the book if you enjoy reading and are driven to learn about the history of oil.
So...to put things in perspective: ARD is a company worth holding.
The world is going to need a lot more crude oil and gasoline in the future...
Works Cited list:
Yergin, Daniel. The Prize: the Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1991.
posted by -Aztec- at 11:05 AM
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