Thoughts on ARD Technical and Fundamental Analysis
I'm by no means an expert in technical analysis. (Fundamental analysis is my forte.) But I just wanted to chime in on something that I think is pretty basic. Maybe a technical guru could back me up.
We hit a 6 month low on March 8 intraday when we hit $25.71. The stock closed that day at $26.33. On June 13 we tested that 6 month low when we hit an intraday low of $25.88. The stock closed at $26.36.
Sandwiched between these two bottoms (I"ll call them a double bottom) we hit an intraday high on April 17 of $38.60 with closing high of $37.77 on this date.
My take is this (correct me if I"m wrong): We tested the March 8 bottom successfully (double bottoms are good as I understand) and now we are again moving higher. Is it now the technical analyst's view that the stage is now set to test the April 17 high of $38.60? If we break this point is it also the view that we will experience, "the next leg up?" Maybe mid $40's in anticipation of Q2 Operational Update? PE is 32. Should be 40(minimum.)
Again, I'm probably one of the least qualified people to discuss Technical Analysis but sometimes it is interesting to see the stock through another looking glass.
I believe investors should emphasize fundamentals when investing. Fundamentals like: Proved Reserves per share, EBIT per BOE Produced, Cost per BOE produced, Production Growth, Oil Ownership via Share ownership, Operating Margin, (Un)Hedged/Debt burden, management team, etc.
On a macro picture I believe you have to look at the fundamentals of supply and demand as they relate to petroleum (Peak Oil.) One also has to consider the geopolitics of the world as well. Many factors to take into account. Factors that range from Tulsa to Tehran; From East Hobbs to the Far East; From New Mexico to the Gulf of Mexico; From Auntie 'em to Uncle Sam.
I'm by no means an expert in technical analysis. (Fundamental analysis is my forte.) But I just wanted to chime in on something that I think is pretty basic. Maybe a technical guru could back me up.
We hit a 6 month low on March 8 intraday when we hit $25.71. The stock closed that day at $26.33. On June 13 we tested that 6 month low when we hit an intraday low of $25.88. The stock closed at $26.36.
Sandwiched between these two bottoms (I"ll call them a double bottom) we hit an intraday high on April 17 of $38.60 with closing high of $37.77 on this date.
My take is this (correct me if I"m wrong): We tested the March 8 bottom successfully (double bottoms are good as I understand) and now we are again moving higher. Is it now the technical analyst's view that the stage is now set to test the April 17 high of $38.60? If we break this point is it also the view that we will experience, "the next leg up?" Maybe mid $40's in anticipation of Q2 Operational Update? PE is 32. Should be 40(minimum.)
Again, I'm probably one of the least qualified people to discuss Technical Analysis but sometimes it is interesting to see the stock through another looking glass.
I believe investors should emphasize fundamentals when investing. Fundamentals like: Proved Reserves per share, EBIT per BOE Produced, Cost per BOE produced, Production Growth, Oil Ownership via Share ownership, Operating Margin, (Un)Hedged/Debt burden, management team, etc.
On a macro picture I believe you have to look at the fundamentals of supply and demand as they relate to petroleum (Peak Oil.) One also has to consider the geopolitics of the world as well. Many factors to take into account. Factors that range from Tulsa to Tehran; From East Hobbs to the Far East; From New Mexico to the Gulf of Mexico; From Auntie 'em to Uncle Sam.
posted by -Aztec- at 11:31 AM
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