Decision to Sell GEOI and Buy ARD Shares on July 29, 2005 is Analyzed
One Year Later ARD Shares Rise 163%; GEOI Shares Decline 47%
Concerns about GEOI production declines raised concerns about the company's future prospects. As production was declining costs were also increasing on a per BOE basis. There were other concerns as well. However, after a call to GEOI headquarters even more red flags became evident. A conference call with both Treasurer and comptroller Ms. Connie R. Hval and Secretary Business Office Manager Ms. Cathy Kruse was unimpressive. Neither woman seemed very knowledgeable about GEOI operations. Many questions went unanswered. The speaking ability of these women left me feeling as though I had been talking to a couple of hillbillies with North Dakota accents. The way these women spoke and conducted themselves in the telephone conference call led me to believe that both were former waitresses at a greasy spoon truck stop with minimal education. GEOI was certainly not a quality oil company to be invested in due to a whole host of issues.
I made some comments on the Yahoo Message board regarding my decision to sell GEOI shares in favor of ARD shares on July 29, 2005. My first post on this day details my thought process on selling GEOI in favor of ARD. My second post is a continuation of additional thoughts. My third post on July 29, 2005 summarized my decision. All three posts lay out the case for selling GEOI and buying ARD.
In the end it was an easy decision. Fast forward one year and it also turned out to be an extremely profitable decision as well. The market is often irrational in the way it prices securities and is therefore often times not efficient as many have postulated. Longterm Mr. Market eventually seems to get things right. On July 29, 2005 I sold my GEOI shares to Mr. Market for $14.85. On that same day I purchased ARD shares for $13.50. One year later GEOI shares closed at $7.80. ARD shares closed at $35.60.
__July 29, 2005_________________July 28, 2006_
SOLD: GEOI...$14.85______________GEOI...$7.80
BUY: ARD...$13.50_______________ARD....$35.60
GEOI share price declined 47%.
ARD share price appreciated 163%.
In the end it was an easy decision to sell GEOI in favor or ARD. Fast forward one year and it also turned out to be an extremely profitable decision as well. The market is often irrational in the way it prices securities short-term and is therefore often times not efficient as many have postulated. Long-term Mr. Market eventually seems to get things right.
One Year Later ARD Shares Rise 163%; GEOI Shares Decline 47%
Concerns about GEOI production declines raised concerns about the company's future prospects. As production was declining costs were also increasing on a per BOE basis. There were other concerns as well. However, after a call to GEOI headquarters even more red flags became evident. A conference call with both Treasurer and comptroller Ms. Connie R. Hval and Secretary Business Office Manager Ms. Cathy Kruse was unimpressive. Neither woman seemed very knowledgeable about GEOI operations. Many questions went unanswered. The speaking ability of these women left me feeling as though I had been talking to a couple of hillbillies with North Dakota accents. The way these women spoke and conducted themselves in the telephone conference call led me to believe that both were former waitresses at a greasy spoon truck stop with minimal education. GEOI was certainly not a quality oil company to be invested in due to a whole host of issues.
I made some comments on the Yahoo Message board regarding my decision to sell GEOI shares in favor of ARD shares on July 29, 2005. My first post on this day details my thought process on selling GEOI in favor of ARD. My second post is a continuation of additional thoughts. My third post on July 29, 2005 summarized my decision. All three posts lay out the case for selling GEOI and buying ARD.
In the end it was an easy decision. Fast forward one year and it also turned out to be an extremely profitable decision as well. The market is often irrational in the way it prices securities and is therefore often times not efficient as many have postulated. Longterm Mr. Market eventually seems to get things right. On July 29, 2005 I sold my GEOI shares to Mr. Market for $14.85. On that same day I purchased ARD shares for $13.50. One year later GEOI shares closed at $7.80. ARD shares closed at $35.60.
__July 29, 2005_________________July 28, 2006_
SOLD: GEOI...$14.85______________GEOI...$7.80
BUY: ARD...$13.50_______________ARD....$35.60
GEOI share price declined 47%.
ARD share price appreciated 163%.
In the end it was an easy decision to sell GEOI in favor or ARD. Fast forward one year and it also turned out to be an extremely profitable decision as well. The market is often irrational in the way it prices securities short-term and is therefore often times not efficient as many have postulated. Long-term Mr. Market eventually seems to get things right.
posted by -Aztec- at 12:46 PM
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