ARD Price Target FY07: TBA
ARD EPS Estimate FY07: TBA

Friday, September 01, 2006

Why Owning too Many Stocks is Nothing More than a Hedge Against Ignorance
Examination of One Investor's Portfolio Reveals a Serious Problem: Too Many Stocks

Northbeach,
your post indicates that you own way too many stocks in your portfolio. 12 stocks is enough to be considered a mutual fund. Owning so many stocks is nothing more than a hedge against your ignorance.

I have some questions for you:

1. How in the world are you able to follow so many companies at one time? IMHO there is no way you can keep up on all 12 companies without compromising the thoroughness of the information you maintain on each company.

2. Why do you own so many stocks? (Why don't you just own the most promising company in each of your three categories?) I believe I know the answer to this question. You have so many companies in your portfolio that you know very little about each one. In other words, you are hedging your ignorance.

By comparison,
I own only 1 company in my portfolio.

U.S. E&P: ARD (100%)

I am up 41.5% YTD. You are up only 29.3% YTD.

At this time I am not hedging my ignorance. After tremendous amounts of research and analysis I have determined that ARD is fundamentally superior with better growth prospects than any other company in the oil sector. Additionally, ARD has significant margin of safety. In other words, there is a major gap between intrinsic value and current share price. The reason I invest in ARD is to take advantage of Peak Oil. Keep in mind that there is no shortage of worldwide natural gas spare capacity unlike crude oil where there is a shortage of worldwide spare capacity. I'm pleased to announce that ARD is a leader in percentage of oil produced as well as percentage of oil proved reserves (86.2% and 83% respectively.)


sincerely,
Dok