Why Flooding the Worldwide Market Place with Oil Will Not Stop Iran from Achieving their Nuclear Ambitions;
Lowering oil prices may have worked against the Soviet Union in the mid 1980s but it will not work against Iran; Such a Move Would Increase Risk of Nuclear Terrorism
Iran
Iran will always have a customer willing to buy their oil. (China needs the oil and Russia is more than willing to aid and abet Iran.) Even if Saudi Arabia is able to flood the worldwide marketplace with oil and lower prices Iran will still derive revenues from their sales. These revenues will easily be applied towards their nuclear arsenal/construction. One need only look at the model employed by North Korea. Their country is dirt poor yet there objective of building a nuclear device has been achieved in all likelihood.
The objective with Iran is to stop them from building the nuclear bomb. Lower oil prices will not achieve this objective.
Iran vs. Soviet Union
The objective of lower oil prices in the mid 1980s was to bankrupt the Soviet Union and prevent them from growing their military. The soviets depended on their oil revenues to fund their military growth. The Soviet Union could not continue on without the oil revenues. Eventually they didn't even have the money to hold their country together as the economy went from bad to worse. Michael Gorbachev also aided the situation by allowing some new freedoms.
A bankrupt Iran would not stop them from continuing with their desire to achieve nuclear arsenal.
Iran vs. OPEC
OPEC would be badly damaged. Any price cuts would not only bring down the Iranian economy but also the economy of Saudi Arabia and all the rest of the OPEC countries. The OPEC countries are not willing to allow self inflicted wounds to their economies. Damage to the Saudi Economy would do more harm to their economy than Iran. A damaged Saudi economy could drive their citizens to revolt and a more dangerous radical regime could emerge to power in that country.
While there are some countries in the Middle east who would feel uncomfortable with a nuclear Iran all of them would love to see Iran use nuclear force against Israel. Therefore there will be no organized effort on behalf of OPEC (or Saudi Arabia) in driving oil prices to levels that would bankrupt the Iranian economy.
FSU and Lower Prices
Sharply lower oil prices could create incentive for the FSU to sell some of their nuclear warheads on the black market. Iran would be a customer.
In summary, lower oil prices will not stop Iran from building a nuclear arsenal. Investors should doubt any conspiracy theories that surround Saudi Arabia opening the wellheads to flood the worldwide marketplace with oil in order to drive down prices and bankrupt Iran. Such a move would increase instability within Saudi Arabia, threaten the very existence of the Saudi monarchy and would not stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power. The only way to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power is the use of military force.
Lowering oil prices may have worked against the Soviet Union in the mid 1980s but it will not work against Iran; Such a Move Would Increase Risk of Nuclear Terrorism
Iran
Iran will always have a customer willing to buy their oil. (China needs the oil and Russia is more than willing to aid and abet Iran.) Even if Saudi Arabia is able to flood the worldwide marketplace with oil and lower prices Iran will still derive revenues from their sales. These revenues will easily be applied towards their nuclear arsenal/construction. One need only look at the model employed by North Korea. Their country is dirt poor yet there objective of building a nuclear device has been achieved in all likelihood.
The objective with Iran is to stop them from building the nuclear bomb. Lower oil prices will not achieve this objective.
Iran vs. Soviet Union
The objective of lower oil prices in the mid 1980s was to bankrupt the Soviet Union and prevent them from growing their military. The soviets depended on their oil revenues to fund their military growth. The Soviet Union could not continue on without the oil revenues. Eventually they didn't even have the money to hold their country together as the economy went from bad to worse. Michael Gorbachev also aided the situation by allowing some new freedoms.
A bankrupt Iran would not stop them from continuing with their desire to achieve nuclear arsenal.
Iran vs. OPEC
OPEC would be badly damaged. Any price cuts would not only bring down the Iranian economy but also the economy of Saudi Arabia and all the rest of the OPEC countries. The OPEC countries are not willing to allow self inflicted wounds to their economies. Damage to the Saudi Economy would do more harm to their economy than Iran. A damaged Saudi economy could drive their citizens to revolt and a more dangerous radical regime could emerge to power in that country.
While there are some countries in the Middle east who would feel uncomfortable with a nuclear Iran all of them would love to see Iran use nuclear force against Israel. Therefore there will be no organized effort on behalf of OPEC (or Saudi Arabia) in driving oil prices to levels that would bankrupt the Iranian economy.
FSU and Lower Prices
Sharply lower oil prices could create incentive for the FSU to sell some of their nuclear warheads on the black market. Iran would be a customer.
In summary, lower oil prices will not stop Iran from building a nuclear arsenal. Investors should doubt any conspiracy theories that surround Saudi Arabia opening the wellheads to flood the worldwide marketplace with oil in order to drive down prices and bankrupt Iran. Such a move would increase instability within Saudi Arabia, threaten the very existence of the Saudi monarchy and would not stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power. The only way to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power is the use of military force.
posted by -Aztec- at 8:39 AM
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