ARD Price Target FY07: TBA
ARD EPS Estimate FY07: TBA

Monday, May 29, 2006

Energy Observations this Memorial Day
There is Much to Learn from Action at a Gas Station, Restaurant Dining Room and a Trip to the Airport

Today on the drive home from the airport the interstate was at about 75% capacity with occasional bottlenecks with traffic moving at about 20mph. These bottlenecks were each on average about 3 miles long. The gas pumps were all being used at a local station when I left for the airport. They were all full again on the way back from the airport.
I don't see any drop in the number of people traveling this year over last from my very unscientific point of view. However, I did take note that the restaurant dining rooms have been unusually quiet the entire weekend.

Americans are a society of automobiles. We have been ever since the over 41,000 miles of interstate highway system was put in place with major construction taking place in the 1950s and 1960s.

As much as we are as a nation addicted to foreign oil, Americans are addicted to their autos: most notable the gas guzzling SUVs and light trucks. One observation today: about 75% of all autos on the road today were SUVs or light trucks. Not only do we like our autos large, we also like to drive fast as we are a restless society with the attention span of a child. Everyone seems to be more concerned about the conversation on their cellphone while driving than their gas mileage or cost to fill up the tank. Whatever pain there is at the pump, it only lasts for a second or two. Just charge it on the credit card and forget about it. Also, there seem to be many people on budgets who are determined to travel no matter what. They just avoid eating out at restaurants and instead take a cooler of food from home or buy groceries from a local supermarket. As previously noted, the restaurant dining rooms were eeriely quiet but certainly not the highways and biways.

Even with gas prices being higher this year over last, demand for gasoline has surely not declined; at least as far as I can determine from my observations driving to and from the airport this memorial day. Given the the percentage of autos that are SUVs and light trucks, and given the speed that people drive these SUVs and light trucks I think gas prices can go a lot higher before we see demand destruction. When I say higher I mean a double or triple from current prices. Then and only then will you start to see people driving not only slower but a higher percentage of cars than SUVs and light trucks.

I'm not complaining though. I was happy to see the occasional gas guzzler pass me as I cruised along at 75mph. I did my part today. I burned my token gasoline today. Did you do your civic duty and burn some gasoline this weekend? It's actually kind of fun when you own the shares of a quality oil and gas company (ARD!)