ARD Price Target FY07: TBA
ARD EPS Estimate FY07: TBA

Monday, October 16, 2006

ARD Limit Order Filled @ $36.63

I'm putting my money where my mouth is. Rational for today's purchase:

1. ARD continues to sell at impressive discount to intrinsic value of shares based on oil assets per share.

2. Production growth continues to impress. (2007 production should be significantly larger than 2006 production.)

3. Oil prices are near a bottom ($58-$59 range.) OPEC will conduct an emergency meeting on October 19, 2006 to discuss and work out details of at least a 1 million bpd production cut.

4. Elections are 16 trading days away. Investors (both retail and institutions) will pour vast amounts of money into oil and gas equities in anticipation of post election rise in oil prices. This is already starting to happen.

5. Tim Rochford filing to sell 100,000 shares on October 8, 2006. (News release posted on October 13, 2006.) Because Q3 is complete and the results have not yet become public any share sale by the CEO as a result of a quarter with lackluster results or worse would lead to SEC scrutiny. In other words, Tim Rochford (ARD CEO) would be unwise to sell 100,000 shares with any kind of disappointing Q3 results in any way shape or form. One can conclude that Q3 was a success in terms of revenues, production, net income and EPS.

6. ARD management continue to hold sizeable position in ARD shares.

7. The St.Louis formation (oil bearing structure at 5400'+) in Southwest Kansas could be of a magnitude of Furhman-Mascho or larger. ARD will drill 1-2 test wells in this formation during Q4. By the time the Q3 C.C. rolls around in early November there could very well be some initial results to report. This could be a wild card.

8. The shoulder season is coming to an end. We are now entering the winter heating season.

9. By Q1 of 2007 ARD should report a large increase in proven reserves (mostly oil.)

In conclusion, there are currently a significant number of drivers to push ARD share price higher from current levels. Expect a new record high in ARD share price before year end.