ARD Price Target FY07: TBA
ARD EPS Estimate FY07: TBA

Saturday, January 13, 2007

ARD Fourth Quarter 2006 Operational Update Release Preview

___Production (BOE)________________________
...............Base Case.......................Best Case
1. CL.........306,000............................310,000
2. NG..........57,000.............................58,000
3. Total.....363,000............................368,000

Production Notes:
*Q4'06 Production Up 113% YoY.....(Base)
*FY'06 Production 1,097,361 BOE...(Base)
*FY'06 Production Up 115% YoY......(Base)
*Q4'06 Production 84.2% Oil..........(Base)

**Q4'06 Production Up 116% YoY.....(Best)
**FY'06 Production 1,102,361 BOE...(Best)
**FY'06 Production Up 116% YoY.....(Best)
**Q4'06 Production 84.2% Oil.........(Best)


___Average Sales Price___________________
........Base..................................Best Case
1. CL..$53.16*................................$53.16*
2. NG...$5.22**...............................$5.22**

Note: Q4'06 Average Sales Price per BOE $49.73 (CL + NG)
*Price per BOE
**Price per Mcf
(6 Mcf = 1 BOE)

____Revenue___________________________
..............Base............................Best Case
1. CL......$16,266,960......................$16,479,600
2. NG.......$1,785,240.......................$1,816,560
3. Total...$18,052,200......................$18,296,160

Revenue Notes:
*Q4'06 Revenue Up 92.8% YoY...(Base)
*FY'06 Revenue Up 137% YoY....(Base)

**Q4'06 Revenue Up 95.4% YoY..(Best)
**FY'06 Revenue Up 138% YoY...(Best)

___Net Income__________________________
.......Base...................................Best Case
1. $6,859,836.................................$7,318,464

Net Income Notes:
*Q4'06 Net Income Up 127% YoY...(Base)
*FY'06 Net income Up 163% YoY...(Base)

**Q4'06 Net Income Up 142% YoY..(Best)
**FY'06 Net Income Up 167% YoY..(Best)


___Net Margin________________________
.........Base..............................Best Case
1.___38%....................................40%

___Shares Fully diluted_________________
........Base...............................Best Case
1. 15,900,000..........................15,900,000

___EPS______________________________
.....Base..................................Best Case
1. $0.43.....................................$0.46

EPS Notes:
*Q4'06 EPS Up 95% YoY......(Base)
**Q4'06 EPS Up 109% YoY...(Best)

Noteworthy Statistic: ARD has a streak of 18 Consecutive quarters of rising revenues. If ARD comes in with the base estimate of revenues it will come in short and break the streak at 18 quarters. If ARD can come in with Q4'06 revenues in excess of $18,192,860 it will extend the streak to 19 consecutive quarters. This is an incredible statistic. It would be nice to see the streak continue.