GMXR Earnings Projections: A Look Back to March 10, 20006
On this Date My GMXR Estimate for FY2006 was $0.67 with Analyst Consensus of $1.67; Which Estimate was More Correct?
On March 10, 2006 my estimate for GMXR FY2006 EPS was $0.67. This estimate was computed and promptly posted on this blog at that time. On this same date (March 10, 2006) the GMXR Analyst Consensus was for $1.67 as recorded by my series of posts on the Yahoo Message Board in March of 2006.
This post dated March 15, 2006 on the Yahoo Message Board indicates my estimate of $0.67 for GMXR in FY2006 as posted 5 days prior on this blog. It was on March 15, 2006 that the analyst consensus estimate was lowered from $1.67 to $1.59 for FY2006.
Fast Forward to October 18, 2006...
The analyst consensus for GMXR FY2006 EPS has dropped from $1.67 on March 10, 2006 to the current estimate of $0.66. It was evident back in March that GMXR was having serious problems with their operation with no chance of posting FY2006 EPS of $1.67. My calculations back on March 10, 2006 that GMXR would earn only a fraction of the consensus Wallstreet estimate is testimony that the average guy can make projections that end up being more accurate than that of the Wallstreet analyst. Many of these analysts have MBAs from Ivy League universities with impressive resumes. While I do in fact have a 4 year degree (Bachelor of Science), it is not in a field even remotely similar to that of the average Wallstreet analyst. I did however take Accounting 101 as well as ECON 101 as electives. In other words, I have no formal education in finance, accounting, business or the like. I feel this is to my advantage (I don't over analyze.) With simple math and a basic understanding of what makes a good company one can look at SEC filings and determine if a company is undervalued. Earnings projections are quite simple and require nothing more than simple 8th grade math skills.
In conclusion, my estimate of $0.67 on March 10, 2006 was $1 below the analyst consensus of $1.67 on this date. In other words, my estimate was only 40% of what Wallstreet analysts were calling for. Today, Wallstreet has lowered their projections in-line with my projections that were made over 7 months ago. Today the Wallstreet consensus is for GMXR to earn $0.66 in FY2006. The fact that my March 10, 2006 estimates for GMXR are looking to be much more accurate than the highly educated Wallstreet analyst is proof that the average retail investor can make better investment decisions and projections based on one's own research. It is my hope that this blog will serve to educate and prove how average retail investors 'armed' with basic knowledge and simple math can "beat the street."
On this Date My GMXR Estimate for FY2006 was $0.67 with Analyst Consensus of $1.67; Which Estimate was More Correct?
On March 10, 2006 my estimate for GMXR FY2006 EPS was $0.67. This estimate was computed and promptly posted on this blog at that time. On this same date (March 10, 2006) the GMXR Analyst Consensus was for $1.67 as recorded by my series of posts on the Yahoo Message Board in March of 2006.
This post dated March 15, 2006 on the Yahoo Message Board indicates my estimate of $0.67 for GMXR in FY2006 as posted 5 days prior on this blog. It was on March 15, 2006 that the analyst consensus estimate was lowered from $1.67 to $1.59 for FY2006.
Fast Forward to October 18, 2006...
The analyst consensus for GMXR FY2006 EPS has dropped from $1.67 on March 10, 2006 to the current estimate of $0.66. It was evident back in March that GMXR was having serious problems with their operation with no chance of posting FY2006 EPS of $1.67. My calculations back on March 10, 2006 that GMXR would earn only a fraction of the consensus Wallstreet estimate is testimony that the average guy can make projections that end up being more accurate than that of the Wallstreet analyst. Many of these analysts have MBAs from Ivy League universities with impressive resumes. While I do in fact have a 4 year degree (Bachelor of Science), it is not in a field even remotely similar to that of the average Wallstreet analyst. I did however take Accounting 101 as well as ECON 101 as electives. In other words, I have no formal education in finance, accounting, business or the like. I feel this is to my advantage (I don't over analyze.) With simple math and a basic understanding of what makes a good company one can look at SEC filings and determine if a company is undervalued. Earnings projections are quite simple and require nothing more than simple 8th grade math skills.
In conclusion, my estimate of $0.67 on March 10, 2006 was $1 below the analyst consensus of $1.67 on this date. In other words, my estimate was only 40% of what Wallstreet analysts were calling for. Today, Wallstreet has lowered their projections in-line with my projections that were made over 7 months ago. Today the Wallstreet consensus is for GMXR to earn $0.66 in FY2006. The fact that my March 10, 2006 estimates for GMXR are looking to be much more accurate than the highly educated Wallstreet analyst is proof that the average retail investor can make better investment decisions and projections based on one's own research. It is my hope that this blog will serve to educate and prove how average retail investors 'armed' with basic knowledge and simple math can "beat the street."
posted by -Aztec- at 12:56 AM
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