Dubai Ports World Enforces Boycott on Israeli Goods and Services Today
UAE government maintains agency "Office for the Boycott of Israel"


Senate Commerce Committee Hearing on Port Security (2/28/2006)
Lautenberg, Frank R.- today made the comment during the Senate Commerce committee Hearing on Port Security. He stated that he is hearing some rumblings from his colleagues that denying the deal to the UAE company Dubai Port World could be construed as being racist and using racial profiling. Senator Lautenberg made the statement that during Gulf War I he was to travel to the U.S. Airbase in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Government refused the senator based on the fact that he had a Jewish stamp in his passport. (The UAE has policies just the same as Saudi Arabia.) The senator filed complaint with the State Department. The senators comment was made to illustrate that those trying to protect UAE Dubai Port World are in absolutely no position to play the race card or even protest any degree of racial profiling.


Senator Barbara Boxer - today made the comment that DPW has no women in its upper management. She also made the comment that on the DPW website they were bragging about former DPW executive, Dave Sanborn, being appointed to the position of the U.S. Maritime Administrator.

UAE maintains a government agency called the Office for the Boycott of Israel. The agency is in charge of enforcing a boycott of Israeli goods and services. Dubai Ports World enforces the boycott of Israeli goods and services.

Do we really want a UAE owned company such as Dubai Ports World to have ownership of our ports and knowledge of our security procedures? I think not!

GEORGE BUSH WAKE UP AND LISTEN TO THE PEOPLE!

I would encourage everyone to check your C-Span listings to see when Port Security hearings will be conducted and broadcast.

Listen to What is Being Discussed by Michael Savage
A Partial List of some Topics Covered in the First Hour

The Romanov Dynasty...and why they gave up their power in 1917. (Their government rotted from within and was no longer able to continue.) Any parallels with our government today? Lots of governement officials would sell their mother down the river for a dime.

Michael Savage on our questioning Port-Gate:
"If a U.S. citizen asks questions you are considered an enemy of the state."

From Arab who is terrorist expert. (forgot his name) mentioned by Michael Savage:
"Jihadists can infiltrate Dubai Ports World."

On why our country is in trouble:
"We (Americans) think by days. They (jihaddist) think in terms of millenia."

Company by the name of "Port Security International"...ties to Sandy Burglar Burger and son of chinese leader...

Michael Savage: Spencer Abraham was former energy secretary. Joined French nuclear firm to try and sell foreign nuclear reactors in america. Do you think it should be permitted that an american secretary of energy should be able to do this?

Michael Savage: What about former secretary of state Madeline Albright lobbying for Dubai Ports World? What about Bob Dole lobbying for DBP? What exactly can Madeline Albright and Bob Dole be offering congressman to change their minds?

Notes are brief and certainly don't come close to giving you all the info and feeling of the discussion and all details. Just wanted to paint a brief picture. You don't want to miss the Savage Nation!

WTNT out of Washington D.C. has a live broadcast that is on earlier in the evening from 6-10pm eastern time. Click here to listen to WTNT AM 570


Click here to listen to News Talk 870 KRLA:
Michael Savage is on the airtonight on News Talk 870 KRLA from:
9 pm-12 am Eastern time
8-11 pm Central time
7-10 pm Mountain time
6-9 pm Pacific time

ARD Q4 Expectations
Look for Revenue of $9.9 million and EPS of $0.32.

My projections for Q4 are based on 172,386 BOE produced with an average realized price of $57 to $58 per BOE.

The math looks like this:
172,386 X $57-58 = $9,826,002 to $9,998,388

So we should expect Q4 revenues of between $9.82 and $9.99 million.

I'm expecting a net profit margin of 42-45%. With that we should have net income of between $4.12 to $4.49 million.

(Low figure derived by multiplying low revenue by low net profit margin. High figure derived by multiplying high revenue by high net profit margin.)


Modeling for 13.1 to 13.4 million shares outstanding we should have EPS as follows:
$4.12mm / 13.4mm & $4.49 / 13.1mm = $0.30 to $0.34

(I divide the high net income figure by the low estimated share count. I also divide the low net income figure by the high estimated share count. This will provide the greatest possible window for EPS. Therefore it is highly likely that ARD EPS will fall within this EPS window.)

What to make of ARD's final Q4 results

Simply stated, you should expect ARD results to be as follows:
Realized Price per BOE....$57 to $58
Revenue.......................$9.82 to $9.99 million.
Net Profit Margin.......42 to 45%.
Net Income..............$4.12 to $4.49 million.
EPS........................$0.30 to $0.34
Shares Out............13.1 to 13.4 million

I'm looking for ARD shares to be realatively stable in a tight trading range as long as ARD reports numbers within the ranges above. The wild card for Q4 is realized price per BOE, net profit margin and shares outstanding. If ARD can come in high on realized price per BOE, high on net profit margin and on the low end of shares outstanding it is within the realm of possiblity that ARD could exceed EPS of $0.34.

What could this figure be?
Lets use $58.50 for realized price, 45.5% net profit margin and 13.1 million shares outstanding:
172,386 X $58.50 = $10.08 million Revenue
$10.08 X .455 = $4.58 million Net Income
$4.58mm / 13.1mm = $0.35 EPS.

So in an ABSOLUTE PERFECT WORLD ARD is capable of $0.35. Anything above $0.35 is COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC. If ARD hits $0.35 expect the shares to skyrocket.

So right now we are looking at a realistic revenue window of $9.82 and $9.99 million. I am putting my estimate right in the middle: $9.9 million is what I"m going to expect.

In terms of EPS we are looking at a realistic window of $0.30 to $0.34. I'm going to put my estimate at $0.32

With $9.9 million in revenue and EPS of $0.32 I firmly believe ARD is on track to accomplish many wonderful things not only for the company but also for the shareholders in 2006. My 2006 target is $60 per share.

Bush's Approval Rating at Record Low
The Presidents Biggest Supporters no Longer Support him

The polls are not surprising to me and they should not come as a surprise to George Bush. I was once one of his biggest supporters and always used the term 'president' preceding his name. I no longer give him that honor. How can I? How can I honor someone who is so reckless about not only our nations security but also about my security? How can I honor someone who refuses to listen to my elected representation in Washington D.C. when he threatens to veto any legislation that might come as a result of a 45 day investigation? How can he even have the balls to threaten veto when he never even knew about the deal until last week? Finally, how can George Bush have any credibility at all on the issue of national security when he refuses to fix the major problem with the mexican border.

The mexican border isn't just about security. The mexican border is also about this country losing its borders. When people can just flood across into our country without regard for our laws we have no borders. When we lose our borders we also lose our status as a sovereign nation. How can you have a nation if there are no borders?

Also we are losing our language. No matter what part of the country you visit north, south, east or west you will frequently see signs in both english and spanish. Also if you call any major corporation be it Citibank, Dell computer, Walmart, etc you will be greeted in both english and spanish. How disgusting!

The president might like to know that he IS OFFENDING his biggest supporters. He is offending those that honored him by attending both his inauguration ceremonies as he was sworn in as president on the chilly winter days...the first one being cool and misting with cloudy skies....the second one being brisk and cold with bright blue clear skies. I fit into this category as I was there BOTH TIMES. At that time I was actually proud of my President.



Now I am neither proud of him nor do I even respect him.

You see, George Bush is so worried about the politics of not offending the UAE, one of our so called supporters in the war on terror that he completely ignores the people who put him in office and refuses to listen to what the people of America have to say.

To George Bush I say this: "WAKE UP AND LISTEN TO THE PEOPLE!"

Talk Radio Host Dr. Michael Savage Getting National Media Attention.
Popular Shock Jock Credited with Informing Presidents Inner Circle of Port Deal

It's hard to believe that the deal with Dubai Ports World almost slipped by under the radar screen without any notice from our leaders in government: most notable the President and the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. The President is lucky to have had a member of his inner circle listening to Dr. Michael Savage on the "Savage Nation."

Dr. Michael Savage is getting the spotlight in the national media for breaking the story to the masses. He claims to have read about the story on the website "worldtribune.com."

I encourage you to listen to Savage Nation to stay informed and know the facts about the issues.

The logic of Dr. Savage is brilliant! For example if someone says that anyone who opposes the deal with Dubai Ports World is a racist then your response would be something like this:

"So you think I"m a racist for opposing the deal with DPW? How about you who supports the deal with DPW? DPW is owned by the government of the UAE. The UAE doesn't recognize the right of Israel to exist. Maybe it is YOU who is the racist."

Click here to listen to the America's favorite talkshow: "The Savage Nation."

George Bush Admits Lack of Concern for Security of United States Citizens
President Admits that if he Were Concerned about Safety the Deal Would Not go Forward


(President Bush is seen here making
infamous quote about his lack of concern
for security of U.S. citizens.)


(Upset Citizen Sounds off about Port-Gate
Only to get an earfull from the President.)

"This deal would not go forward if we were concerned about the security for the United States of America." ~ George Bush

George Bush WANTS THIS DEAL TO GO FORWARD! Therefore it can be implied that he is NOT concerned about the security of the United States of America.

He just said that IF he was concerned about the security of the United States of America the deal would NOT go through. So my question to the president is this: Why is the deal going through? Are you not sworn to be concerned about our security???

(Look at the Mexican border? We are being overrun with illegals. Look at our ports. He wants to let the UAE (a country with blood from 9-11 attacks on their hands) control major ports in our country. Did you know that the UAE is one of only 3 countries to recognize the taliban as the official leadership of Afghanistan? Clearly he is NOT concerned about the security of the USA.

Reread the quote.


(Artist conception of what Bush will look like
after the USA is blackmailed with a nuclear
device in one of our ports.)

President George Bush Officially Flips his Wig
Bush Vows to Allow UAE Company to Run Our Ports

The President has officially vowed to NOT reconsider the port deal. Bush has decided to committ political suicide and potentially split the republican party in an election year. Expect Congress to Veto deal. I may make a trip to Washington D.C. on Monday to lobby my senators and congressman. Whatever happened to the government that is of the people, by the people and for the people? Why is the President unwilling to allow our ELECTED REPRESENTATIVES investigate Port-Gate? By making his final decision before congress has a chance to conduct a formal investigation he is already discounting the investigation. Also if the president was unaware that the deal took place until recently why is he so hell bent on the deal going through? Wouldn't he himself want to conduct his own investigation of the deal? Oh yea, this is the same president who refuses to shut down the Mexican border.

Just remember a country requires 3 things:
1. Borders: We have no border. We are being invaded and flooded with Mexican illegals. This is a major security threat. Need I mention our Ports??
2. Language: Our English language is losing out to Spanish. Even in northern states there are many billingual signs that contain both spanish and english n o matter if it is a public libarary or a McDonalds.
3. Culture: We are losing our culture.

We are losing our identity as a nation.

Call your Congressman

Call your Senator

Call the Whitehouse

UAE Corruption: Look What the State Department Says


Tonight I went to the State Department Website to see what they say about UAE. There are many different subheadings. One section dealt with corruption. Here is what the State Department said under the heading 'Corruption' regarding the UAE:

Corruption
"There is no evidence that corruption of public officials is a systemic problem; however, the former head of Dubai Customs and Port Authority – along with five other customs officials – was tried, convicted, and sentenced in April 2001 to 27 years in prison on charges of corruption and embezzlement. He was pardoned four months later by the Dubai government and released. "

"The UAE is not a signatory to the UN Anticorruption Convention. "

The above information taken from the U.S. Department of State Website.

In Conclusion, do you realize that Dubai Ports World is owned by the UAE government? Do you also realize that this very same government pardoned the former head of Dubai customs and Port Authority after serving only 4 months of a 27 year prison term? This goes to show that the UAE is committed to protecting those that are corrupt and embezzle. This is especially troubling given the fact that the person involved in the crime was the head of the Dubai Customs and Port Authority. Don't forget that UAE is famous for their smuggling. HAVING THE UAE OWNED DUBAI PORTS WORLD RUN OUR PORTS IS NUCLEAR SUICIDE. Also, Why has UAE not signed the UN Anticorruption Convention? Do you want a country running our ports that refuses to sign the UN Anticorruption Convention (Not that I put much faith in the U.N. but you at least have to ask yourself why the UAE is not a signatory?)

The Savage Nation: Listen to the Truth About Port-Gate
...And Many Other Important Issues and News Events

Listen to the guy credited with breaking Port-Gate: Michael Savage. If you have never listened to his #1 independent talk radio show, The Savage Nation, you should try it. You will find his discussion and analysis brilliant!! The radio show is informative, entertaining, and thought provoking. He is neither republican or democrat.







Michael Savage is on the air
tonight on News Talk 870 KRLA from:
9 pm-12 am Eastern time
8-11 pm Central time
7-10 pm Mountain time
6-9 pm Pacific time

The show is on News Talk 870 KRLA Monday - Friday at the above stated times. Other radio stations may carry the broadcast at different times.

Why $70 Oil in 2006?

I"m making my projections of $70 oil based on geopolitical problems around the world. Not only that but part of the estimate is derived from my estimates on Demand coming from China, India and the United States as well as the fact that I believe we are knocking on the door of Peak Oil: we have supply problems.

I'm not one of the SHEEPLE who are not willing to put a risk premium on oil. I AM WILLING TO PUT A RISK PREMIUM ON OIL and my modeling indicates 2006 average realized oil price of $70 for ARD. Today is a perfect case in point regarding the GEOPOLITICAL problems that I"m talking about. If you read "Twilight in the Desert" you already would have heard about Abqaiq: the world's largest oil processing facility.

Some say $55 oil.
I say $70...MINIMUM.
We are at $62...

If the bombers today had hit their target at Abqaiq we would have seen oil go north of $70 today (or at least in the coming days.) I say $70 is conservative. (I think it is a lowball estimate...Especially when you factor in the summer driving season and hurricane season.) Don't be a sheeple. $55 oil ain't gonna happen.

'Nough said.

I encourage everyone to go to my site and purchase your copy of "Twilight in the Desert" from Amazon.com. (If you enjoy my website and feel it has helped you please click on the link from my site so I get a small commission...that is why the ads are on my site. My time is worth something. I'm hoping that the ads will give me a little something in return.

UAE and Iran: Close Ties Uncovered
Iran Invests Heavily in UAE; Smuggling Between Countries Common.

The quotations below were taken from the Khaleej Times Online:

"...(smuggling) accounts to one third ($4 billion) of the total bilateral trade between the UAE and Iran." That being said it seems that UAE and Iran like doing deals "under the table." They must be close trading partners to do so much trading under the table. Out of sight out of mind right? Not if it is a nuke. Not if that nuke happens to be on a container ship bound for a USA port. Would you want a company running your ports where smuggling with Iran is the normal course of business?

"...Iranian companies have invested heavily in the UAE..." Could it be that Iran has invested in Dubai Ports World? Perhaps they have paid off management at Dubai Ports World? Maybe a little hush money to look the other way as a nuke is loaded onboard a container ship? Pretty scary stuff!

I'm not willing to give the benefit of the doubt to any UAE company and especially when it comes to our national security. To do so is suicidal.

Click here to read the article in its entirety.

PORT GATE: Allowing UAE to Operate our Ports WILL Compromise our National Security.


Read the Sue Myrick R-NC letter to President Bush. The content of the letter is my sentiment exactly.


(Congresswoman Myrick R-NC with Bush)

Click here to see the Congresswoman's website.

PEOPLE ARE PISSED OFF. I AM FURIOUS ABOUT THE WHOLE DEAL.

If this deal goes through...even with protest of congress and citizens and God forbid something happens at one of our ports or something is allowed in via a port there is going to be anarchy... Any veto WILL be overridden by a 2/3 majority of both houses of congress. That won't be a problem at all.I was one of the biggest supporters of this president, I voted for him twice, I EVEN ATTENDED BOTH INAUGURATION CEREMONIES ON THE CAPITOL LAWN (that's how much of a Bush supporter I was.)

Now I don't refer to him as PRESIDENT BUSH anymore. HELL NO! I simply refer to that man as George Bush. He no longer deserves the honor of my uttering the term "President" before his name.I've lost all respect for the man...and the Mexican border.... It's like having a burglar alarm in your home but not arming it when you go on vacation. What a joke!Call your Senators and Congressman. Call the White house and sound off. If you are upset let them know.

Call your Congressman

Call your Senator

Call the White House

I've called both of my Senators, my Congressman and the White House. Have you?

Don't be a sheeple. Don't be passive on your safety and the survival of your country. If you have never called the office of a politician before or the White House you can rest assured that it is painless and the people answering the phone welcome your comments. Your comments will be passed on. If you want a reply from your Senator or Congressman make a request. Ask them to state their position on the issue in writing. I did.

Shame on all those who play the race card. This is about the very survival and security of our country. Race has nothing to do with the uproar. It has everything to do with the UAE:
1. Refusing to recognize Israel.
2. Viewing the taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan
3. providing the place where most of the operational planning for the 9-11 attacks occurred.
4. providing the place where most of the financial backing for the 9-11 attacks occurred.
5. having ties with Iran.

The Automobile 1914-1920

If you own oil stocks then you should read, 'The Prize' by Daniel Yergin. It is an excellent book about the history of oil. The timeline starts in 1853. Here is just one tidbit. I think it relates to today's situation with China and India:

On page 194 of "The Prize" it states that the, "...number of registered motor vehicles in the United states between 1914 and 1920 was astonishing - a jump from 1.8 to 9.2 million."

On page 218 Daniel Yergin points out that crude oil, "...which had been $1.20 a barrel in 1916, rose to $3.36 by 1920..."

I'm going to go out on a limb and link the automobile as one of the main reasons causing shortages of gasoline and crude oil. I see the same exact thing happening 86 years later with China. The USA is outsourcing many positions that were once done here in the USA. Call Dell computer or Citibank and you might talk to someone in India.

The younger generation in these countries now have wealth that their parents probably didn't have. They want to live like we do here....with a car, a microwave, and lots of things that require plastic (need petroleum to make plastic right?!) Anyway we know that China has recently purchased a large number of commercial aircraft from Boeing and Airbus. Their population now is having money to travel! China is now going to produce cars and sell them in the USA in the not to distant future. They'll also be making cars for their own people. I feel there will be an explosion in automobile purchases in China much like the USA had back between the years 1914 and 1920. This will no doubt put pressure on worldwide crude supplies.

But the problem is that today all the major oil discoveries have already been made unlike 1920. Also, the major oil fields of the world are in decline. So now we have to find new fields and increase production in existing fields just to make up for declines in those major oil fields that have been in production for decades. Most notable is the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia: the world's largest oil field.

Anyway...lots of historical tidbits that seems to be repeating again. The book is also a lesson in history. I would highly recommend that anyone read the book if you enjoy reading and are driven to learn about the history of oil.

So...to put things in perspective: ARD is a company worth holding.

The world is going to need a lot more crude oil and gasoline in the future...

Works Cited list:
Yergin, Daniel. The Prize: the Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1991.

ARD Limit Order Filled @ $33.35
I'm Putting my Money Where my Mouth is.

ARD 2006 Target Price Increased to $60.
Projected 2006 Average Realized Price Increased to $70 per BOE

The estimate for 2006 Production is 1 million BOE. My modeling was adjusted to account for the Q4 2005 production results. My previous estimate was for $60 oil in 2006 and a $50 price target. Due to supply and demand issues I have chosen to up my projected average realized price for 2006 from $60 to $70. I have also upped my price target from $50 to $60 based on this fact.

Below you will see the total quarterly oil and gas production.



The above chart is based on steady increases in average daily production as depicted in the chart below. Some may question the fact that there are not larger increases in average daily production. Due to the Q4 2005 production results I suspect that the water cut and mature nature of the oil fields are limiting the production growth that many had come to expect. The second rig will allow ARD to continue to increase average daily production in each of the next 4 quarters in 2006. (Blue represents actual results. Red indicates my projections.)



(Click on Image to Enlarge)

With 1 million BOE produced and an average realized price of $70 ARD will generate $70 million in revenues.


With a conservative 47.1% net profit margin net income will come out to be about $33 million.

Based on 13.75 million shares fully diluted the EPS will equal $2.40 for 2006.

With a PE multiple of 25 we have a $60 price target.

I'm looking for ARD to make significant acquisitions and add a third rig in 2006 in order to continue production increases going into 2007. Given the fact that ARD is ramping up oil and gas production with increasing oil and gas prices going forward I suspect that investors will warm up to the ARD story. Given the fact that ARD has 100% of proved reserve within the United States I suspect investors will put a premium on ARD shares. A PE multiple of 25 may be too conservative especially given the extreme risk of a super-spike in oil prices to north of $100 per barrel. The volatile situation with Iran would be the primary driver of this super-spike. Secondary drivers would be Venezuela cutting off world oil supplies in sympathy towards Iran. The situation in Nigeria is also very precarious. The clock is ticking. I feel ARD is a fantastic buy at current prices given the potential going forward.

I am not investing in any gold mining companies at this time due to the simple fact that one can't put gold in your car to drive to work. Gold doesn't heat your home. Gold isn't used in the production of the countless number of consumer items that we encounter each day. Gold isn't used in the production of food unlike the petroleum based fertilizers and the fuel to run the tractors. People won't be fighting over the right to buy an ounce of gold. Instead they'll be fighting over the right to buy a gallon of gas for their SUV. While gold may double going forward. The price of oil may rise 3-4X from current prices or even higher. Profit margins with ARD will top any gold company. High profit margins and low cost structure are key no matter what the business. The higher the profit margins and lower the cost structure the better.

ARD even has a higher profit margin than GOOG. The oil companies like ARD will become the new darlings of wallstreet replacing technology as we go forward. The fall of Google is the first sign of weakness in the tech sector. Look for investors to rotate out of tech and into oil as the public becomes more aware of the problems associated with our oil based economy and our dependence on mideast oil. The State of the Union address certainly put the energy problems facing this country in focus.

I'll be buying more shares of ARD on Wednesday. I'm passing on any gold mining stocks for reasons already mentioned. The black stuff that ARD pumps out of the ground will be regarded as gold in the future.

Avoid Airlines, Auto's, and technology (Google is the tipping point: Read my January 18, 2005 analysis of Google.)